LeBron's (and Sam's) Olympics men's basketball knockout-round power rankings (2024)

VILLENEUVE-D’ASCQ, France — Well, how’s that for Olympic men’s basketball gamesmanship?

After all the booing that Team USA big man Joel Embiid has endured from French fans upset with his controversial choice not to play for their team — the latest round coming at the end of the Americans’ 104-83 win over Puerto Rico on Saturday when he egged them on by waving both arms as the buzzer sounded at Pierre Mauroy Stadium — his highest-profile teammate, LeBron James, countered with his own thumbs down for the French afterward. Their team, anyways.

Only James knows if it was a creative way to show support for his teammate or if we’re connecting dots that don’t exist. But when the 39-year-old leader of this American squad was asked whether he had been scouting the teams that were moving on to the knockout round that begins on Tuesday in Paris, it was quite interesting that France — which suffered its first loss in three tries against Germany on Friday when they fell 85-71 — was nowhere to be found on his personal power rankings.

“There’s a lot of great teams right now,” he began. “Obviously Canada, Germany. I like the battle Greece has had. You know, Serbia, we had them in our group play. We know what they’re capable of. Australia advanced as well. Australia. So there’s a lot of great teams.”

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A French reporter, predictably, chimed in.

“What about France?” the man said.

“Um, I’ve been impressed,” James said unconvincingly before changing course. “Um, you know, I wasn’t very impressed with their last game. I didn’t think they was ready for the physicality of Germany. But other than that, they’ve been playing some good ball.”

Regardless of James’ intent, his perspective underscored an exciting truth about the basketball left to come: With the cream of the crop moving on, the games should be a lot more exciting than the snoozer that was Team USA’s latest win.

The Americans eventually took care of business, but their start was so slow and sluggish (they trailed 25-17 late in the first quarter) that early on this typically raucous environment had all the energy of a preseason Charlotte Hornets game. The crowd, which has been nothing short of electric almost every time out for both the men’s and women’s games, didn’t include a strong Puerto Rican contingent and thus the vibe was, well, blah.

None of which matters now. After 10 days in this lovely region in Northern France, where Team USA would shuttle back and forth from Paris for games while most of us scribes stayed here, the second phase of their gold-medal journey should include the kind of parity (or something closer to it) that makes for more compelling hoops theater.

Since James shared his top-five Olympic power rankings for the basketball world, it’s only right to follow suit. Here’s how I see it as we head into the do-or-die portion of the schedule.

1. Team USA (3-0)

The Americans downed Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico, and had a point differential of plus-64 that is well ahead of the pack. Germany was second at plus-47. In terms of talent, there’s no better sign of their roster strength than the fact that Anthony Edwards (16.3 points per game) is leading the team in scoring while coming off the bench. Speaking of which, maybe he wasn’t so far off with those infamous ‘No. 1 option’ comments at Las Vegas training camp after all?

2. Germany (3-0)

James was dead-on about France’s inability to handle the Germans’ aggression and force, by the way, but my takeaway was more pro-Germany than it was anti-France. Either way, the reigning FIBA World Cup champions looked very strong while rolling through Japan, Brazil and France.

They’re led by Dennis Schröder, the Brooklyn Nets’ point guard and veteran of this national team who is averaging 19.7 points and nine assists per game in wildly-entertaining fashion. The Orlando Magic’s Wagner brothers, Franz and Mo, have been stout and spirited (12.3 points and five rebounds per for Franz; 12.3 points and four rebounds per for Mo). Daniel Theis, now with the New Orleans Pelicans, is averaging 10.3 points and a team-high seven rebounds per.

3. Canada (3-0)

I was tempted to put the Canadians in the second slot, but their games were significantly more taut than those of the Germans as Canada’s plus-20 mark, gathered in wins against Greece, Australia and Spain, is third among remaining teams. But their defense is what makes them so different and dangerous, with (Oklahoma City’s) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander up top and the hellacious Dillon Brooks (Houston Rockets) and Lu Dort (Thunder) on the wings. That’s the kind of thing that should serve them very well when the stakes are raised.

Ditto that they’re very well coached, as (the Nets’) Jordi Fernandez is receiving rave reviews out here for his handling of this club.

R.J. Barrett, the Toronto Raptors guard whose father, Rowan, is the general manager of the program, is playing at a high level (team-leading 21 points per game, to go with four rebounds and 3.7 assists per game). Gilgeous-Alexander (19.0 points per) and Brooks (14.3) are carrying significant offensive loads, too. If only they could get (the Nuggets’) Jamal Murray going (5.7 points per on 33.3 percent shooting overall and 10 percent from 3 (1 of 10).

4. Serbia (2-1)

Serbia, which took silver in last year’s FIBA World Cup and is generally considered one of the best national teams on the planet, has been tough to gauge so far.

They didn’t put up much of a fight against the Americans in their pool play opener, falling 110-84 and missing 37 of 46 3s along the way. Then they routed Puerto Rico (107-66), which was certainly better than the alternative but not all that insightful considering the disparity in status and talent.

But if any game showcased their strengths, it was the 96-85 win over South Sudan on Saturday in which the Hawks’ Bogdan Bogdanović caught fire (30 points on 10 of 14 shooting, including six 3s) and the Nuggets’ three-time NBA MVP, Nikola Jokić, went for 22 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. If Serbia is going to medal, those two will carry the vast majority of the load.

5. France (2-1)

It’s not great for France’s prospects that Victor Wembanyama’s Olympics debut has been so choppy.

The Spurs’ 20-year-old sensation has moments of brilliance, like when he took over in overtime against Japan on Tuesday. But he has long stretches where he’s a non-factor too, like the three quarters that preceded his outburst against Japan and continued a problematic trend.

After France fell to Germany on Friday, coach Vincent Collet even highlighted Wembanyama’s penchant for ball-stopping on offense as an issue. So yes, in other words, there are significant wrinkles that need to be ironed out. Still, “Wemby” is averaging team highs in scoring (17.0 per game) and rebounds (10.7) while joining forces with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert down low (2.7 blocks per game for Gobert; 2.0 per for Wembanyama).

The veterans on this team — namely Nic Batum and Evan Fournier — will need to find a way to improve the cohesiveness and chemistry if France is going to advance.

Qualifiers that didn’t make the (power rankings) cut: Greece (1-2), Australia (1-2), and Brazil (1-2)

A quick word on Team USA’s opponent, Brazil, before we get to packing the suitcase for the relocation.

The Brazilians went 1-2 in pool play, losing to France (78-66) and Germany (86-73) before downing Japan on Friday (102-84). The Brazilians aren’t elite, but the Bruno Caboclo show has certainly been worth watching.

The 28-year-old who was the 20th pick of the Raptors in 2014, and whose last NBA days came with the Houston Rockets in the 2020-21 season, has played in France, Brazil, Mexico, Germany and Serbia since then. He’s averaging 13 points (second on the team) and 7.3 rebounds (team-high).

Brazil also features the oldest men’s basketball player in the Games in Marcelo Huertas, the 41-year-old point guard (LeBron at 39 is second on that list) who spent two seasons with the Lakers (2015-17) and currently plays for CB Canarias in Spain. And if Huertas & Co. want to play their way onto LeBron’s list, there’s an easy way to do it: Pull off a stunner on Tuesday.

See you in Paris …

Required reading

Vardon: Embiid says he chose Team USA over France because ‘these guys wanted me’
Amick: Antetokounmpo opens up on Olympic experience: ‘I cannot stop smiling’

(Photo of LeBron James: Thomas Coex / AFP via Getty Images)

Sam Amick is a senior NBA writer for The Athletic. He has covered the Association for the better part of two decades while at USA Today, Sports Illustrated, AOL FanHouse and the Sacramento Bee. Follow Sam on Twitter @sam_amick